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2019 – Winner takes home nothing

For a country of 70 years and many more years to come – one election that is likely throw up either a hung parliament or a toothless government is quite insignificant. Unless we follow elections only for adrenalin rush, we should not follow 2019 general elections at all.

The earlier blog was based on current sentiments and elementary game theory. It has thrown up some names and scenarios. We all know that the electorate is fickle and so are the sentiments. We also know, that the BJP election machinery is the best in the country today {sans probably the BJD in Odisha – which has an equally hard nosed and through machinery; in addition it has the finesse to be not seen as giving war rhetoric despite ruffling many a feathers) so the tables can turn.

However for the purpose of this blog, lets assume my prognosis in the last blog holds true. It is a good read and nice spice for future story-telling, but such situations will not result in lasting success for the winners.

What this would mean for India is that the Congress led collage would forms the government – and thus history will have repeated itself. A repeat of 1977, when an anti-Mrs Gandhi block toppled a strong Indira. The block’s only agenda then was Indira hatao – no ideology or economics to back it. Similarly the current anti-Modi block has arithmetic stacked in its favour but Modi-hatao rhetoric is also bereft of any ideological common ground. Thus this bloc will not just repeat history, but will set the platform for history repeat itself yet again post elections, post elections.

The bloc will be subject to multiple vested pressures, the largest party (say Congress) with max 150 seats will not have any more bargaining power than a coalition member with just 15 seats (say Chandrababu Naidu) and is very likely to topple (on its own or be toppled). Most certainly there will be rumblings and either a change of sides or re-election in 2-3 years.

There will be massive currents post that and all opportunists will get the boot. In fact, every parliamentarian of the ruling collage will be considered as the villain and will be subject to massive people ire. In such a situation – the winner of 2019 – will likely bite the dust in 2022 (if not earlier).

Therefore the advise to all fence sitting politicians – don’t jump into any boat. Just wait and watch. Don’t join new parties, pre-elections remain non-aligned. Contest as an Independent. Take your calls post election. In a political career spanning 30-40 years (which is more than a working career), not succumbing to the sentiments maybe the best gambit.  

It is true, that there are not many in the political space today who have the luxury not to choose prior to elections. But certainly there are few potential heavy weights in that boat. Closer home, Mr. Jay Panda is in that position. Hope he continues to maintain his grace and composure and remains non-aligned. If he manages to win as an independent, he will have a greater probability to play a larger role in either state or national politics, possibly both. Through BJP or BJD or any other constellation.


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