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2019 – Winner takes home nothing

For a country of 70 years and many more years to come – one election that is likely throw up either a hung parliament or a toothless government is quite insignificant. Unless we follow elections only for adrenalin rush, we should not follow 2019 general elections at all.
The earlier blog was based on current sentiments and elementary game theory. It has thrown up some names and scenarios. We all know that the electorate is fickle and so are the sentiments. We also know, that the BJP election machinery is the best in the country today {sans probably the BJD in Odisha – which has an equally hard nosed and through machinery; in addition it has the finesse to be not seen as giving war rhetoric despite ruffling many a feathers) so the tables can turn.
However for the purpose of this blog, lets assume my prognosis in the last blog holds true. It is a good read and nice spice for future story-telling, but such situations will not result in lasting success for the winners.
What this would …

Picking the Winner – 2019

There are two sagas which will dominate the Indian psyche in 2019.One is the much awaited Cricket World Cup. The other is the magnum opus, the road to the gaddi in New Delhi. The CWC will be played out in England. The other will play itself out in the streets of India and social media (na, not TV channels – they don’t have any influence. TV anchors, espl. the ones in English channels, don’t need to take their jobs or themselves very seriously. The people who notice them or care for what they say do not count in Indian elections).
Without further ado, lets pick the winners first. My call, based on current mood in the country, probabilistically the person with the best odds of becoming the PM is Mr. Rahul Gandhi. Yes, it is him. Call him by whatever name you want. But game theory picks him to be ahead of others in the race to the gaddi. Probabilistically, though, of his becoming PM is well less than 50%.
Another shocker – and an ‘apparent’ contradiction to the above – the bloc which i…