Observations From Bihar Elections - Nov 2015

The best thing about Bihar elections, as far my selfish interests go, is that I am visiting my blog after months and feel like writing a few lines. Without further pleasantries, lemme go straight to the point(s):


Facts:

• NDA Vote Share ~34% (2015), vis-a-vis ~38.5% (2014). 
• JDU+ Vote Share ~45% (2015), vis-a-vis ~ UPA+JDU ~ 43% (2014)

Observations:

• BJP was simply lucky in 2014, that the Mahagathbadhan was not mooted at that time. Had it been mooted in 2014. BJP would have got all the seats in got in Bihar. It would not have got a majority on its own in 2014.
• Master Stroke by RAGA & team. Increased own seats to 20+ from 4. Made NAMO bite dust.
• In the first past the post system - the seats secured are poor surrogates to reflect the mood of the electorate. Neither in 2014 nor in 2015, were the winning parties as popular in terms of popular mood nor were the losing parties as lagging as the seat shares showed. The positive side of the first past the post system is that it allows the numbers to ensure governance/passing of bills. However, there is a need for further research whether we need to re-look at our models to elect representatives. (Research - means proper research (like a doctoral thesis or something equivalent to a fat book based on lot of analysis/data), not a few hours of chat with google bhai).
• Did it make sense for BJP to have such a high pitch campaign? It will probably would have been smarter to save that cash and change the product (philosophy, policies, alignments, arithmetic) over the next 3-4 years till election time.
• BJP - Should release its annual scorecard at the centre. If it feels, it has done good work. That alone will translate to votes in state elections (a couple of % points at best). Honestly - India is a still a place of arithmetic. It was in 2014, it is still in 2015. There is a 5-7% play is every election during the run-up to the voting day. Thats about it.
• Does it really make sense for any party for that matter to create such a song and dance during elections? What is the incremental impact on vote share or mood swing? Unless there is a novelty factor - it is not likely to have much impact. The voters already have a lot of facts, additional song and dance - may get increase the tempo and may get more people to vote. However, it is not likely to change election results too often. 
• A little more about song and dance. One thing great about that is that the voting % is constantly increasing. The EC deserves lot of credit for that too. The TV channels, the festoons, the para-trooping national leaders and celebrities are all helping. 
• NAMO's efforts - the number of rallies/speeches (30) - were they worth it. Is this result a reflection on his performance? Not really, it is early days for that. But he is certainly looking like the clown of the pack. Honestly - he should stop spending so much of his (Indian citizen's - he is the first servant of the country) time to fight elections where the incremental benefits mayn't be significant. The states where the party already has a base, it won't have much impact on votes/seats. States where the party does not have a base (say Kerala) - the vote share may increase; but not enough to get seats. So why waste national resources (which includes personal time). 
• The desperation to get Rajya Sabha seats is justified. Without them, the govt can't perform and will lose in 2019. Now it seems, the best way to get the seats to make more friends than foes. Not by winning elections, but by sleeping with the enemy. That is the only option left with the BJP. It should walk and talk in such a manner that more people should welcome them and this is only possible when it is perceived to welcome and respect everyone. Not just that, the motor-mouths need to be cellotaped but an180 degree U turn will be required in the body language and the soundbytes.
• Coming back to the basic percentages and arithmetic with we started out with. In a democracy they are supposed to matter. In India the consolidation or vote banks have been mainly in the form of castes and minorities. The caste / minority bank has worked to get votes, because it has in one stroke pandered to two contradictory but deeply ingrained human instincts - one a promise self-respect/dignity and another, a clinging in a state of fear. But that has not worked for India as a country (or the vote banks) - considering the pace of economic growth as compared to other countries of comparable age (say, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore etc).
• BJP has tried majority consolidation - but has only been partially successful. In fact the majority based plank had plateaued in the 1990s, hence the dallying with socialists and now the focus on development. Every positioning will work, only when there walk to back the talk. Lets wait and watch.
• For many years, the communist parties and congress had managed to cut across caste lines. Unfortunately the communists could not translate their vote bank to economic development, hence they have lost massive ground. The congress lost out because dynasty superseded meritocracy - and hence could not deliver economic benefits. AAP has taken the space the socialists and congresswallahs have ceded in Delhi and have cut across caste lines.  However, AAP is still an experiment - there is a lot of ground to be covered. It will be great for the country if this experiment is successful. Eradication of corruption and stridency will not win elections always. Efficiency in governance and economic wealth creation will create stable vote banks  - again we need to wait and watch.  
• The moot point is that there is still a latent space to look at vote banks - that will give sustained and balanced economic growth. There is an opportunity to re-work the maths. Rather there is a serious need to re-work the arithmetic. Considering the stickiness of extant vote banks, it will be a 30 years (one generation) effort (hopefully 10-15 years less - in the social media era), to create new and unequivocal idioms / symbols and consolidate voters around that. Who is going to act to fill the space? Will the existing parties re-invent themselves to fill this space? Or Like the way the congress and the socialists ceded their space to AAP in Delhi; will some start-up usurp this space.